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Unbalanced Economy | School Reform | Health Care Reform | Prison Reform |Built in Bias | Manipulation
Public Policy Instutitute Study
Redistricting and Legislative Partisanship
The Eric McGhee study compared ratings of legislators votes before and after the 2001 gerrymander. In particular, Chamber of Commerce, Planned Parenthood and League of Conservation Voters ratings. The study found very little partisan effect due to partisan districts. Rather, the partisan effect seemed mostly dictated by party affiliation. However, a few small effects were noted. Republicans became more partisan when party loyalty scores were used (p. 29) and when comparing votes over time (p. 34, Fig. C.14). This makes sense, because gerrymandering requires cramming as many of the minority party as possible in as few districts as possible, making them more partisan than the majority party. So one would expect the effects to show up there first. A comparison of partisan ship compared to the party norm also showed a small effect (p. 37). Another small effect was found – legislators are more likely to be more moderate on at least one issue, if not all issues – about 3 legislators in the Assembly and 2 in the Senate (p. 49).
Although the effects of partisan districts may be small, the study suggests less partisan districts may have been enough to change from 0 to 7 of 22 important bills (p.56). With respect to budget votes, the authors note “that the main consequence of reverting to the 1990s plan [independent redistricting] would be to give the majority more room to maneuver on the budget bill.” (p. 60). This is due to the minority party being more partisan under Legislative drawn districts, making them unwilling to compromise to allow the 2/3 majority needed to pass a budget.
Also, even if everyone is just as partisan, the change of a few Democrat districts to Republican, even if not significantly changing the Democratic majority, will affect close votes and should thus induce moderation and compromise. There is passing reference to the more significant effects of the change of a few seats from Democrat to Republican on p. 61.
The paper suggests the need for money to campaign may be a bigger factor, since that makes legislators beholden to partisan interest groups. Certainly public financing of campaigns is a worthy goal, but it is not on the ballot and is no reason not to take the first, perhaps small, step. Perhaps more importantly, the study confirms redistricting should have a beneficial effect in getting budgets passed. As noted at the end of the conclusion on p. 63, “the effect of the redistricting on individual bills is likely to be small but perhaps large enough for attentive observers.”
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